China Business

China business is an emerging market, still in its infancy, but has the potential to become hugely profitable, offering a bounty of opportunity for business company owners both large and small. But while the market is strong, there are considerations to keep in mind. One is that the Chinese market is controlled almost entirely by the state. The other is that the Chinese military’s aggressive posture with the U.S. is not just saber rattling.

As the Chinese market rapidly opens to foreign investment, the exchange for goods has kept pace, with the door swinging both ways. Clearly, the opportunities available in China business are huge, as the country begins to shake off agrarian roots and step into the revealing spotlight of the 20th century. Witness the incredible demand for steel used for construction, the growth of tech firms such as Bokee (formerly called BlogChina), and IPO Baidu, Google’s counterpart, Alibaba, the Chinese Ebay equivalent and technological innovation that has begun to sweep the country.

As the wave of change moves forward, spearheaded by advances such as blogging, the introduction of Levis, Reeboks, Adidas, Boeing Aircraft and UPS hubs, many of China’s 400 million youths have willingly embraced the change, while the remaining population of one billion is slower. But even if just 10% of these folks came around, think of the market implications.

But embracing the change by the youth of any country doesn’t always lead to a change in leadership. There are still government crackdowns opposing the very freedoms being embraced. The Chinese government, still a dictatorship based on an agrarian society of low-tech simple-tooled muscle, cracks the whip to get the wayward youths and the growing China business market under control.

But it may be too late for that. History teaches us that once a country tastes the sweet nectar of freedom and the power of money, there’s no turning back. It’s happened at the Wall in Germany, in Poland with the Solidarity Movement, the economic implosion of the Soviet Union, Afghanistan independence and now Iraq. Once the door to freedom is opened, pent-up demand keeps it open, whether openly or underground.

It’s happening in China now. Despite governmental crackdowns, the movement to embrace Western culture by China business entrepreneurs will succeed for one reason: there’s just too much money to be made.

So, despite threats and foot-stomping by Chinese military leaders, the future will belong to the advancing wave. That’s not to say we can discount the Chinese military. Not at all. They represent a threat. While they may not have a sizable navy, air force or in many other ways match our capability, they do have itchy fingers on nuclear triggers. And the fingers that are on those triggers adamantly oppose the U.S. We cannot ignore this potential threat as we ignored Hitler in Germany just before WWII.

History has a nasty way of repeating itself.

Attacks have already occurred. There have been numbers of technological hacks on business and governmental institutions. If there is one sure way to cripple a country, it is to destabilize it’s economic machine. The U.S. machine is huge and these attacks have been dealt with so far. But attacks on business take on different forms.

Piracy is rampant in China, with $5 Harry Potter DVDs hitting the streets before the movie was released. Cloned products abound, everything from designer clothing to electronics. And if you think that this doesn’t have a chilling potential on future market trends, think again. For every pirated piece of software, watch, clothing or technology, someone, the holder of the copyright or the developer of the idea, loses.

And the Chinese government seems to be dragging its feet as a frustrated FBI attempts to pound on the door, claiming that piracy is an “internal” problem that they would rather handle themselves.

Ok. But when?

There’s also the issue of Taiwan, which the U.S. has sworn to defend, and for which the Chinese government has a lean and hungry look. There’s a lot of money there. With the U.S. pledge to come to Taiwan’s aid, the Chinese have focused their attention on us. President Bush claims that the relationship with China is good and he appears confident that any issues can be worked out. We’ll see. But the sounds of sabers certainly is a cloud that hangs over the sunny economic horizon.

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